Analysis and Initial Conclusions from the Eurovision 2016 Voting for Russia and Ukraine

A look at how though Russia was the popular choice overall, 17 Russophobic Establishment Juries Bloc-voted to give Russia 0 (zero!) points while giving 132 to Ukraine in Eurovision 2016 – while people from the same countries were split 149-148 to Russia – simply to deny Russia a victory in overall points (popular plus jury).

May 15, 2016

Background

On May 14, 2016, Ukraine was announced as a winner of the Eurovision 2016 beating Australia to second place and Russia to third.   This pronouncement was greeted with undisguised glee and gloating from Western Governments, Military Organizations, Human Rights(sic) groups and Media, showing that this was more than a music contest.  It was something else.

The winning entry from Ukraine, 1944, sung by a Ukrainian singer Jamala of mixed Crimean Tartar heritage, had attracted controversy since the song while about Josef Stalin’s wartime deportations of Crimean Tartars, was clearly timed to make refrerence to the events of 2014 and what the West refers to as the “Russian annexation of Crimea” and by Russia and the overwhelming majority of Crimeans themselves (but only around 30% of Crimean tartars at the time of the referendum) – in line with historical voting, the 2014 referendum, and Western polling in 2015 – as the “Crimean reunification with Russia”. 

[Ed: added on May 18th. In Crimean Tartars support Russia, the author cites both respected Russian and Western polls from 2015 that show a majority of Crimean Tartars in Crimea supporting Russian governance.]

While Eurovision rules prevent songs that are political in nature, the song was admitted over Russian protests, since it was ostensibly of events from long ago.

Prior to the final there was campaigning by Western media organizations that a Russian victory would be “disastrous.” 

Since winning the award, the singer herself confirmed it was meant to refer also to current political events.

 The following is the initial analysis of voting patterns for just Russia and Ukraine from the Eurovision data downloaded from the source.

Assumptions

  1.  Source data is accurate.
  2.  The rankings are by total votes obtained by adding the total votes by the Juries and Televotes across the 42 countries that voted for the 26 Finalist countries.
  3. The Juries serve as a proxy for the Elite/Establishment opinions from their country i.e. part of the groupthink of their Governments and Media organizations.
  4. The televotes were actual non-doctored votes and serve as a fair proxy for the people at large who are not part of the Establishment.

3 and 4 are clearly approximations.  While many Jury members are part of the Establishment groupthink in their countries and others must be careful not to step too far outside the Establishment view which is not a good career move, some do vote on the merits.  In turn people who vote freely are still influenced a great deal by their Establishments, as much as they try to focus on what music appeals to them rather from from whence it originated and what kind of “message” they may be sending.

Basic Results

The charts below summarizes the rankings of the 26 countries who were in the final.  The first is a straightforward ranking by total points (Jury + Televotes).

  1. Australia finished a comfortable first in Jury voting, beating the second place Ukraine by almost 110 points points which comfortably beat 3rd place France and 4th Malta.  Russia was tied with Belgium at 5th with 130 points, 80 points behind Ukraine.
  2. Russia won the popular vote, just 40 ahead of second place Ukraine which was 100 ahead of third place Poland which was 30 ahead of 4th place Australia.
  3. Australia benefited hugely from the Jury – a 129 point favorable differential – the MOST FAVORABLE of the 26 nations.  Russia lost because of a 231 negative differential – the MOST UNFAVORABLE – of the 26 nations.  It must be noted that Ukraine also got less Jury points than its popular score coming in at third in most unfavorable at point differential.

(Also, Poland which had the second most unfavorable differential (at 215 points) got an astoundingly low 7 points from the collective Juries as compared to that given by Televoting.

Meanwhile joining Australia in the top three most favorable differentials were Malta and Israel.  Israel actually tops the list of ratios between Jury and Televoting, scoring over 1100%, ie they received 11 times as many Jury points as popular vote, in contrast to Russia which received 36%, ie a third as many Jury voted as televotes.

An analysis of these countries will be covered in a future blog)

Russia vs Ukraine Analysis By Specific Country

The table below is sorted by the difference between what the elites scored Ukraine vs what they scored Russia.  The yellow color signifies points advantage to Ukraine and dark blue, to Russia.  The *’s indicate where despite the point advantage to one or the other, some scoring was given to indicate a sympathy to both sides (or perhaps a real appreciation of the music).   **’s are next to countries which decided to give zeros to both and their points elsewhere.

The results are quite revealing.

Voting patterns for Russia vs Ukraine (Yellow is more to Ukraine; Blue is more to Russia)

As one can see, the Elites who are most  Russophobic gave the maximum (12) or next to maximum (10) to Ukraine and the minimum (0) to Russia.  The Bloc voting pattern should be clear to anyone who thinks this was anything about the music.

The ones on the list above the row where Ukraine is, are made up the key European powers that underwrite the Kiev regime, like the UK and Germany who desperately needed Ukraine to win for a variety of reasons from trying to buy popularity for the regime for a bit longer to thumbing the Russians in the eye ; those like the Poles, Lithuanians and Georgians who hate the Russians (more than the Ukrainians whom they also despise but that can wait till after ); Israeli and Australian elites who coordinate their views with the Arm-Twister-In-Chief (the lead underwriter of the Kiev adventure); the desperate current Serbian leadership who must prove their loyalty to the West by any means to be accepted into the club; outright Western satrapies like Slovenia and Macedonia; East European countries with historical ties to Russia like Latvia and Moldova who are playing a balancing act without upsetting the West, and notionally neutral nations like Hungary, Finland who want to stay out of the whole mess (and awarded goose eggs to both).

Below the row where Ukraine is are countries like Ireland who know from historical experience that the European core is rotten but they need to live with it unfortunately (zero to both as well); to France which has a slight shade of de Gaullish defiance left (a passive-aggressive 1-0 to Russia), to the former USSR states who scored for both Russia and Ukraine, but the bigger country more; to the countries which have had historically warm relations with Russia like the Central Europeans; and Greece which is going through the wringer by the EU elites and tries to thumb its nose at them at every opportunity (I may be your slave in deed but not in spirit!).

Sweden and Iceland are two surprises that gave points to Russia and none to Ukraine, especially given the shrill Russophobic rhetoric by the Swedes.  Perhaps their Juries were actually judging the music.

The popular votes for the countries with Russophobic elites are mostly damning.

Despite the shrill propaganda against the Russians by their Govermments and Media, the German people defiantly voted for Russia over Ukraine, giving Russia the maximum(12), 6 points over Ukraine, reflecting in large part the disconnect between the Establishment and the populace.  This is true in the UK as well.  Serbia also had a large difference between how the people voted – a maximum 12 to Russia –  versus the elites.  As one can see most countries’ voters preferred the Russian entry over the Ukrainian one, and even when reverse it was close. 

Altogether the juries of a solid anti-Russian bloc made it 132-0 for Ukraine. Adding Serbia, it made it 144-1. Meanwhile the popular vote was 149-148 in favor of Russia for the same countries.

Meanwhile the Russian and Ukrainian juries have each other 0, while the Televoting was quite generous (12 from Ukraine and 10 from Russia) showing that the people did not let politics get in the way of voting.

Conclusion

Looking at the results (as well as the voting patterns for other countries), it should be fairly clear that the Juries from the core Western/West leaning and anti-Russian Eastern European  (with Sweden and Iceland being surprising exceptions) voted as a bloc to both pump Ukraine up and deny Russia any points.  It resembled Gymnastics scoring during the Cold War, a mentality very much alive among Western elites.

A key goal for the Bloc to make Ukraine win was not just for its populace to feel good and feel less antipathy to their deeply unpopular Government, but will also allow Jamala to become another  propaganda symbol against Russia. Expect the same machinery that promotes Pussy Riot and other anti-Russian figures, to organize her tours of various Western countries and breathless coverage from media organziations to stress “Crimean Tartar repression”. (At the same time of course with little or no mention about the repression of ethnic Russian minorities in Ukraine or the Baltics.)

The victory engineered by the Bloc, will also will allow Kiev to host it next year as Eurovision rules dictate, and make the whole a spectacle to promote Ukraine.  The underwriters of Ukraine Inc. are hoping it will be a successful IPO.

Meanwhile it is revealing that despite the rhetoric from the elites and anti-Russian propaganda, many people voted for the Russians leading them to win the popular vote.  One can only imagine the scale of the Russian victory if the elites had not resorted to scaremongering.

The original goal of Eurovision, to heal divisions after an internecine war, died a bit over the weekend.  Next year will almost surely kill it.

 

 

 

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3 Responses to Analysis and Initial Conclusions from the Eurovision 2016 Voting for Russia and Ukraine

  1. Pingback: Pål Bergström Blog | The Unz Review: Trigger Warning: Crimean Tatars Support Russia

  2. Pingback: How Maxim Trudolyubov Lets Ideology Trump Facts | ludwitt

  3. Pingback: How Eurovision Voting correlates to Geopolitics: Case of Poland and Israel | PROPOSITION 1

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