July 3, 2015
A lot of disingenuous commentaries including leading EU politicians have suggested that since the deal that the referendum is strictly about was a “take-it-or-leave-it” offer that expired on June 30th, the vote at some level is moot.
Given the EU’s decision to cut off ELA and strangle the banks causing pain to the Greek people and not so subtle suggestions that a “Yes” vote would be met favorably by the EU rulers, everyone should understand what the vote is about at this stage is about.
Yes Vote: Capitulation to the EU Diktats – More of the same forever
The Europgroup fundamentally refuses to reform itself and admit that austerity as a starting point is a failure not just in five years of experimentation with the Greeks but across the Eurozone, a fact pointed out by Paul Krugman today.
Having caused a Great Depression in Greece, a youth unemployment of over 50% with social, psychological effects for a generation or more, evicirated the Greek social welfare net for the aged, spread canards of the Greeks being lazy (a statistic refuted in the Washington Post – Greeks worked harder than German), the EU politico-bureaucrats want more. They refuse to listen to not just what Syriza has been saying, but what many serious economists and the IMF and even Merkel in 2012 (as per a Wikileaks transcript) said: without more haircuts, the Greek debt burden is unsustainable.
A vote for “Yes” is a vote for Greece bowing to the EU’s prescriptions and projections that historical experience and economic theory clearly show are fictions to be polite and lies to be accurate, and hoping that the masters of their fate in Berlin and Brussels will be benevolent dictators. It is a vote with no hope for Greece at least a generation if not longer. It’s a vote for the EU dictating whatever “deal” makes them happy.
No Vote: Greece Negotiates From Strength
Greece will have on its side not just FACTS , from serious economists to now even the IMF. It will now have the will.
There are many politicians in the EU who would like to support Greece but are afraid of Germany, Shäuble in particular who even Merkel is careful not to upset (as the Wikileaks transcript show). This will embolden them to act for a compromise.
For to leave Greece banks closed, in spite of a clear democratic vote based on facts would clearly signal from the EU leadership that the European UNION has no meaning, economically, politically or morally.
For EU members to chose that path would be suicidal and they will negotiate with Syriza on a fairer deal while opening up the ELA.
Meanwhile the United States Government which has been clearly sympathetic to the plight of the Greeks (having followed an anti-austerity recovery strategy itself), working to release the IMF report prior to the referendum in the face of EU opposition, and ensuring surprisingly favorable coverage from its principal organs of state – the New York Times and Washington Post – will step more aggressively in along with the IMF to prevent a NATO country from disintegrating.
Most importantly Greece will become masters of their own fate.
A vote for “No” may be a step into the unknown but included in this unknown is a hope for a vibrant Greece whose direction is driven by the Greeks and not thoroughly corrupt foreign politicians and bureaucrats, a possibility that is effectively snuffed by a “Yes” vote.